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Peter Kellner just said on Daily Politics that when people are asked how they would vote IF Cameron supports staying in, the vote to stay in goes to about 2 - 1 in favour. Significant numbers of conservative voters "change sides" if they think the party leader would vote yes

interesting, and chances are he will recommend staying in - I'm guessing its elderly Tory voters who are the switchers

Just a guess but probably. He didn't do an age breakdown. He said if he had to call it then he would say a yes vote is most likely. He is of course a brilliant psephologist.

redders_61 wrote:

Just a guess but probably. He didn't do an age breakdown. He said if he had to call it then he would say a yes vote is most likely. He is of course a brilliant psephologist.

They all are, until they get it wrong.
I think they are under estimating the grey vote on this issue.
They (Grey vote) are a cynical bunch  and no longer swayed by words from politicians/ political parties, especially the ones that promised a common market and now offer a federal state.
My guess and hope is for a NO vote, lets join the countries in the EEA ( and if not the rest of the world).

Terry

it will be interesting - normally in UK polling, the elderly are assumed to be more likely to vote than the young, and so a higher weighting given to them in the polling data to compensate  - I suspect this referendum will see, in UK terms, a very high turnout, and so the "over-representation" of the elderly in the actual vote wont be as dramatic as usual

Yes the younger will vote in droves  and hopefully a majority in the HOC will vote to add 16_18 year olds as it is their future. Or the Lords will amend it to include 16-18 at  2nd reading, if not. Both Labour and SNP are committed to include 16 to 18 in the referendum, green and PC too. Not sure about DUP. I hope some Tories revolt

Sorry but 16 - 18 to young to vote, most don't know their a**e from their elbow!

Terry

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." - Winston Churchill

It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.

Winston Churchill

I started work at 15 for 2 weeks and only paid NI on my 16th birthday I became liable for and paid,  income tax. So "No Taxation without Reoresentation" . Some famous American and no not Mel Gibson lol

I thought Mel Gibson was Scottish - "you've never take my money", or something like that

Lol actually his brave heart is American by birth I meant because he played the Patriot lol but now we are straying  lol

The 2nd reading of the Referendum bill in the Commons is on Tuesday. Already talk in today's paper of a Tory rebellion over official government and EU "publishing data" in the 28 days prior to the referendum.

Lol David Cameron not giving a free vote for the referendum also means for the passage of the Referendum bill. This mainly affects cabinet ministers. Defy the whip lose your position. Wonder if the odds on is higher now